With its conveniently central location somewhere midway between Asia and the Americas, combined with its famed neutrality, robust financial infrastructure, stringent regulatory framework, and a critical mass of investment institutions, it comes as no surprise that Switzerland has become a global hub for blockchain developers and companies.

Most people associate this technology with cryptocurrencies, serving as the underlying mechanism for Bitcoin's inception in 2009. Although investors were excited when all of these things first came out, many now view the cult-like enthusiasm of “crypto bros” and the dizzying volatility of cryptocurrencies as something to be avoided and alarmed about. Sadly, this response may blind them to the investment merits of blockchain.

Bitcoin performance since 2014
Source: Yahoo Finance

What is blockchain?

Blockchain, also known as Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), is an immutable and decentralized record of transactions. It operates through a shared ledger that records transactions and tracks assets traded over a computer network. Virtually anything of value can be tracked and traded on the chain, which results in reduced risks and costs.

How blockchain works scheme
Source: PwC

Still feeling confused? Let’s explore an analogy. Imagine that a stranger wants to sell you what they claim to be an authentic vintage Rolex. It’s exactly what you want, the price is attractive, and you can actually afford it. But how can you verify its authenticity? The truth is, it would take you a great deal of time and money, which would probably deter you from buying it.

Now, imagine that you can summon all previous owners and dealers of this watch, each armed with their original purchase receipts containing the manufacturer's product code as stamped on the watch case. Among this group, there is also an accredited representative from the Rolex manufacturer. In a signed legal document, they all acclaim Rolex as genuine. Would you buy it now?

With this in mind, it’s not difficult to see how DLT could potentially disrupt and transform the current procedures related to activities such as securities settlement, investing in funds, anti-money laundering, know-your-client checks, letters of credit, and supply-chain management, as well as a host of other processes that currently demand a lot of time and financial resources.

Analysts at McKinsey's have estimated that within less than five years, blockchain-enabled transactions could account for around 10% of the world economy. Now, let’s explore whether this projection can craft a compelling investment thesis at this time.

Blockchain industry growth and perspectives – is it worth it?

  • Growing support from both public and private sectors

    It has been said that the biggest profits during the 1849 California gold rush were made by those who supplied equipment to the miners – not those who found gold themselves. This is a good point to keep in mind when considering whether to invest in assets such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens or, instead, in the blockchain technology that enables them.

    The public sector has already recognized this opportunity, with Switzerland leading the way. In January 2023, the city of Lugano launched a CHF 100 million six-year bond in collaboration with Zürcher Kantonalbank. This digital security is listed on both the traditional SIX Swiss Exchange and on SDX, the Zurich-based SIX digital exchange based on blockchain technology.

    Enthusiasm for DLT has even found its way into central banks, the very zenith of the financial services sector, with several of them having well-advanced plans for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Unlike cryptocurrencies, which derive their value mostly from opaque algorithms, CBDCs are directly linked to the tangible fiat currency of the issuing bank and have the full faith and backing of the issuing government.

    Just like crypto-assets, however, these technologies are facilitated by blockchain. They are being developed as a means of promoting financial inclusion and simplifying the implementation of monetary policy in central banks, as well as easing governments’ management of fiscal policy.

    Meanwhile, among Swiss private investors crypto-assets and blockchain are increasingly recognized as an opportunity for growth. A recent report from PwC has examined this trend in detail. It reveals that currently, less than 1% of Swiss private investors have an allocation to this sector. This figure, however, could potentially grow by up to 5x over the next 2 to 3 years.

    Additionally, PwC found that more and more professional Swiss investors are becoming engaged, with the proportion forecast expected to more than double over the next 3 or 4 years (although it appears that our nation’s pension funds have yet to be fully convinced).

    How institutional investors are embracing the crypto/blockchain opportunity
    Source: PwC

    Despite this widespread support among knowledgeable professionals, Swiss banks have been slow to develop an appropriate crypto offering. According to PWC, only 3 out of every 10 bank customers are satisfied in this regard.

  • The technology is making remarkable progress in the developing world

    DLT, in fact, has also been making progress way beyond Switzerland – particularly among developing nations in Africa and Asia. Indeed, technology has been embraced by these countries as a means to lift their financial infrastructure, as well as their other services and networks, to the levels of access, transparency, and user-friendliness akin to those long enjoyed in the developed world.

    For instance, the National Institution for Transforming India, a policy think tank, has been working with a blockchain software firm to implement this technology in order to modernize land titling, supply chains, and health records.

    In Kenya, IBM joined forces with a pan-African logistics platform, servicing retail kiosks and food stalls, to build a DLT-powered lending facility that offers micro-loans. This will enable small vendors to finance and maintain larger inventories.

    There are several other examples of blockchain-enabled initiatives in Haiti, Nigeria, and other places across the globe. Some aim to reduce corruption with more comprehensive and systematic registration of land ownership while centralizing other forms of record-keeping. This can involve the use of smart contracts to improve transparency and accountability in procurement programs and other areas of government spending.

  • Tech companies that are key to blockchain development

    When it comes to investors, the key consideration lies not so much in the countries spearheading blockchain development, but rather in the companies involved.

    In addition to its Kenyan venture described above, IBM has been a major player in this technology for several years, holding patents dating back to 2014. One of its earliest initiatives was ADEPT, or Autonomous Decentralized Peer-to-Peer Telemetry. Developed in collaboration with the Korean electronics powerhouse, Samsung, it targets the Internet of Things (IoT). In a nutshell, it enables technology such as home appliances, cars, and other consumer devices to be configured and managed remotely using blockchain.

    Unsurprisingly, Microsoft is another leading actor in DLT. Its cloud-based Azure platform provides a range of services and solutions to blockchain developers, enabling them to build more efficient and reliable supply chains in various sectors including healthcare, financial services, manufacturing, government, and retail.

    The mention of the cloud inevitably brings Amazon to mind; its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division was a pioneering user of this technology and now stands, by far, as the world’s biggest cloud platform. It aggressively promotes itself as the primary US contender to Microsoft in enabling DLT. Already, over 70 partners leverage AWS facilities, including its Quantum Ledger Database, to provide thoroughly centralized data management.

    Oracle has also long been a leading name in large-scale ERP (enterprise resource planning) and other business software solutions. It offers a variety of “Blockchain-as-a-Service” (BaaS) solutions, including identity management, access controls, and business analytics.

    Finally, among the leading US tech giants we have Google (or Alphabet, its listed parent company). While Google entered the realm of DLT relatively late, it's catching up remarkably quickly. In 2022, it launched its Blockchain Node Engine, a fully managed node-hosting facility for Web 3.0 developers. Why is this so significant? We'll delve into this further when we explore what exactly Web 3.0 is and its implications below.

    Two non-US tech leaders in blockchain

    While the United States holds a significant position in Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), it does not have an absolute monopoly. Our sixth contender is the Chinese tech conglomerate, Tencent, which has been actively investing in blockchain since as early as 2017. Known for its widely used WeChat, a social media, messaging, and payments app that boasts over 1 billion monthly users, Tencent stands as one of Asia's largest companies.

    In the realm of blockchain, Tencent offers TrustSQL, a BaaS service for developers specializing in blockchain technology. Notably, Tencent's banking subsidiary – an entity that cannot currently exist under US, Swiss, or EU regulations – is a member of the Financial Services Blockchain Consortium (Shenzhen), “FISCO”, which is exploring innovative ways of collaborating on DLT applications within the financial services sector.

    Another prominent non-US player is the Indian technology group, Infosys, listed on the New York Stock Exchange and counted among the largest companies in the subcontinent. Its focus lies on business software solutions and management, including a recently launched suite of three distributed applications for supply chains, financial services, and government services, respectively.

    The preceding seven leaders represent pivotal forces in the worldwide blockchain market, estimated in 2022 to be worth USD 11.14 billion, and expected to grow to no less than USD 469.49 billion by 2030, a 42-fold increase. Although the market already comprises almost every kind of business, Moonshot believes that the most significant areas for investors may very well be the food and beverage supply chains, healthcare, real estate, banking, and fundraising.

The importance of Web 3.0

  • What is Web 3.0?

    Web 1.0 is the generally accepted term for the founding version of the World Wide Web, which was purely text-based and in read-only format. Here is a recreated sample page.

    Recreated page of the first website
    Source: CERN

    The Web 1.0 was conceived by the Englishman Tim (now Sir Tim) Berners-Lee – formally a fellow at CERN in Geneva. It was within these confines that he developed HTML (a hypertext mark-up language, enabling browsers to display web content) and HTTP (a hypertext transfer protocol, facilitating the transfer of web files to browsers) to launch the web and its first browser at the end of 1990. In light of this, Switzerland can proudly and rightfully claim to be the true birthplace of the web.

    The next stage, Web 2.0, unfolded gradually throughout the 1990s and could be described as marked by increased public engagement and, in the first decade of the new millennium, the advent of social media. This era transformed the web into an interactive space, largely driven by user-generated content and peer-to-peer collaboration. This is the version we still use today.

    As for Web 3.0, it is the anticipated next phase; “anticipated” being the operative word, as it does not yet exist. In fact, there isn’t even a universally agreed-upon definition of what it will be. What we do know, however, is that its main feature will be decentralization, granting users control over their own information.

    This stands in stark contrast to the current paradigm, where search engines like Google and Bing, as well as social media giants such as Facebook and X (formerly known as Twitter), hold and sell the data of your every action on their platforms to third parties, along with any personal or non-personal information you may have provided.

    Instead of primarily involving interaction between businesses and consumers (B2C), this third-generation internet will operate on a peer-to-peer, or rather, consumer-to-consumer (C2C) basis. It will be powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology, offering both parties greater transparency and enhanced security.

    This is not to say that businesses will be excluded or hindered. On the contrary, they will be able to offer much more personalized services and products, while simultaneously being able to more closely monitor and manage their supply chains in real-time. This will ensure the precise and swift delivery of their personalized offerings, as well as prompt payment.

  • When will Web 3.0 arrive?

    According to the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, a regular report issued by Gartner, Inc., a leading American technology consulting firm, Web 3.0 was one of the most talked-about new technologies in mid-2022. It was expected to deliver transformational benefits (the ‘‘Plateau of Productivity’’ in the diagram below) within 5 to 10 years.

    Hype cycle for emerging technologies as of August 2022
    Source: Gartner

    You may be under the impression that, over a year later, we are still waiting for the party to begin. However, that would mean that you’re ignoring everything that has already taken place. Much like the advent of Web 2.0, the new paradigm has started, not with a bang, but with the gradual arrival of a range of different initiatives that, over time, will result in something entirely new and transformational.

    Consider social media. While it may have been concocted by corporations to entice advertisers and sales entities to a vast yet captive consumer audience, it also serves as a peer-to-peer platform where individual consumers engage and conduct business with one another. This is what is at the forefront of Web 3.0.

    Similarly, financial platforms such as eToro and Interactive Investor already grant investors direct access to thousands of mutual funds and other investment opportunities, as well as personalized research and selection tools, chat facilities, and discussion groups. The same has been happening among big retail banks and insurers, which are using financial technology (fintech), often based on AI and blockchain, to offer bespoke services that provide customers with the ability to shape financial solutions that are fully aligned with their unique needs and preferences.

    Of course, all of these initiatives are centralized. That said, their primary focus is on delivering what users actually want, promoting a much more diversified, inclusive, and above all, personalized approach. As the investment analogy goes: It is bottom-up at least as much as it is top-down, thus foreshadowing things to come.

    Altogether, the Web 3.0 blockchain market was estimated to be worth USD 2.8 billion in 2022 but is forecast to reach USD 45.4 billion by 2030, a 16.2x increase. This represents just one corner of the worldwide market for blockchain, which, as we noted earlier, is expected to grow by a factor of more than 40 over the same period.

    So, how can you secure a piece of the cake for yourself?

How to invest in blockchain?

Earlier we warned about the volatility of crypto-assets, exemplified by the Bitcoin chart. There is, however, no denying the extraordinary profits that investors have accumulated thanks to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like it.

Moonshot has measured the performance of Bitcoin from January 2013 and compared it with the total return of the Swiss Stock Market Index (SSMI), with full reinvestment of all dividends paid. The disparity in results is astronomical.

An investment of CHF 1’000 in the SSMI would have grown to just CHF 1’526.99 over the span of the last 10 years. In contrast, Bitcoin would have yielded CHF 1’133’513.33. This amounts to a cash return that surpasses the SSMI's by an astonishing factor of no less than 742 times!

Comparison of CHF 1’000 hypothetical investment in both Bitcoin and SSMI at the start of 2013

The foregoing disparity, although impressive, is purely speculative. It’s unlikely that the typical Swiss investor would have put money into Bitcoin in January 2013, a time when most had no clue about, or if they did, they were extremely skeptical. The truth is, cryptocurrencies really only became somewhat mainstream around 2016-2017.

Even if people had taken the leap, they would have seen their investment crash by over 50% in just two days in December of that year. Only a few months later, the unfortunate investor might have watched the rest of their commitment vanish in the collapse of Mt. Gox, then the world’s largest trading platform for cryptocurrencies, accounting for roughly 70% of all trading volume.

The point is, that new technologies, along with the ventures associated with them, are volatile and risky by their very nature. With little or no record of profits and dividends, their value is largely based on hype (and hope), leading to exceptional price volatility as these fragile emotions swell and then fade. According to our calculations, the volatility of Bitcoin (represented by the blue line in the chart below) has been almost 15 times that of the SSMI (depicted by the pink line) over the past decade.

Growth comparison of Bitcoin and SSMI over the past 10 years
Source: TradingView

Moonshot believes the remedy is to distance oneself as far as possible from this market noise and disruption that routinely and significantly unsettle the prices of newly listed assets. With this in mind, we have created the Moonshot Blockchain (Web3) Portfolio, which offers individual investors a diversified array of private investments poised to reap the greatest benefits from the development of blockchain, Web 3.0, the metaverse, and crypto-assets in general.

Unlike publicly listed investments, its valuation is not expected to be constantly battered by dramatic shifts in market sentiment. Yet, it will encompass nearly every opportunity available in what promises to be one of the most rewarding new investment areas in the years to come.

Conclusion

When considering an investment in something new, like blockchain, most investors find themselves stuck between two kinds of fear: the fear of loss and the fear of missing out (FOMO). The former is prudent; it's crucial to acknowledge the risks in any investment before committing your hard-earned capital. This is why diversifying your allocations and spreading risks across various non-correlated assets is fundamental – and this is exactly what our Blockchain Portfolio accomplishes.

On the other hand, FOMO is also sensible, at least in this case. Usually, the phrase implies people buying into something because everyone else is doing so. However, provided you have done the required research, understood the risks, and identified an appropriate diversity of opportunities, there’s really no good reason not to take advantage of such a promising new technology. On the contrary, given that the web was born in Switzerland, there's every incentive for Swiss investors to contribute to taking it to the next level.

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